Polling - The Politics of Hype

These are in exciting times indeed with politics in the air and scam-mongering and raised temperatures occasioned by bogus opinion polls which readily attract caustic responses.

From the days when we decided to return to democratic rule in 1992, after decades of militarization in our body politic, we have never had it so sweet and liberated as now, thanks to the New Patriotic Party and the National Democratic Congress.

Since 1957 when we gained our independence and were ushered into a period of Nkrumahism, we suffered Nkrumah's benevolent dictatorship when Young Pioneers were brainwashed into snooping on families, through to the establishment of Libyan style people's defence committees and revolutionary organs.

It has been one step at a time in our forward match to a purposeful existence.

In the early 90's, a phenomenon called Polling popped into the lexicon of our political language. Newspapers in 1992-1994 were fascinated with it and found it an intriguing tool to deploy, and boy did they deploy it to the irritation of many a politician, and the hilarity of readers?

For those politicians who mostly underwrote those polls- Professor F.Y. Botchway (bless him) of the famous Green Book project and Libya Green Book fame with Mr. Kojo Yankah, was one of those presidential aspirants who featured prominently in the tabloids of those days. Mini-tabloids like Young and Old and The Focus, dominated the newsstands, and rankled readers and titillated the consuming public with their fare.

COUP MAKER

Times have since moved on. It takes a coup maker to tame a coup maker and end coups (apologies Eboe Hutchful). It was Jerry Rawlings who forced us to sleep at 6 o'clock and pulled the shutters on all newspapers, thankfully grew up, and with a little nudge from home and abroad, once more released the shutters, and liberated the air waves. Banned newspapers were unbanned and the requirement of newspapers obtaining license outlawed (Newspaper licensing decree). Professor Kwame Karikari, who singularly suffered under his watch, now has found a new lease of life with the Media Foundation for West Africa.

NEW ERA

All around us today are very useful institutions that were not in existence in the 1990s, but have now come into being to add substance to our democratic growth. From the Institute of Economic Affairs, Gyimah Boadi came up with his CDD (Centre for Democracy and Development), Dr.Mawusseh's Centre for Media Analysis, Institute for Democratic Governance, literally scores of NGO-like centres have sprung up to enrich our process.

POLLING

Then the older established ones like the late E.N. Omaboe's (Nana Wereko Ampem) Research International then headed by Kwaku Attafuah now of National Petroleum Authority, and recent ones like Steadman Group in Asylum Down, conducting surveys for big companies such as Television stations wanting to get a sense of their audience's profile and reach.

Polling generally is such an expensive business and it is now lurching into some of critical stage, which should not be allowed to be bastardised.

It takes a company like Unilever to commission a poll on consumer behaviour and you would expect a multinational to go to a company noted for best practices, appropriate skills and scholarship.

For a political poll which is national in scope, the cost of polling can be prohibitive. On a politician's desire to know his or her ratings, short of a realistic introspection and assessment of the subject himself, commissioning a poll is very, very expensive, and in Ghana, almost worthless.

CRUCIAL INGREDIENTS and THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE.

There are certain distinguishing features that must be present in all polls. Some are provided, others are not, but must be readily displayed when challenged and the public has a right to demand answers to these when they are made to consume those findings.

In Nigeria last week, The Guardian newspaper conducted and published a poll of the public perception of Nigerians about Alhaji Musa Yar'Adua. The results showed a very positive outcome for the Nigerian President.

A total of 1,900 respondents were randomly selected and interviewed, using the Equal Probability and selection Method (EPSEM) and a multistage, clustered sampling method.A total of 100 questionnaires were administered in each state, including Abuja with 96.7 percent return rate, with plus or minus two margin of error.The demographic composition of those sampled in the poll, 76% were male as against 24% female. 49 percent were single, 45 percent were married. Two percent were divorced, widowed and separated.

Qualifications of respondents range from HND to first degrees accounted for 42 percent, GCE/WASC/SSCE ,20%, Professional diplomas and others, 18%, Masters degrees 9%, first school leaving certificate,6 %, and doctorate degrees 1%, other qualification such as City and Guilds accounted for 4%. Income distribution of the respondents showed 29 %,earning less than N50,000, 20 % earned up to N149,000, up to 299,000 were 16 % of respondents, N300,00 to N499,000, 12 % , while 11 percent earned N500,000 and above.

The team of 8 researchers were named, coordinators headed by Dr. Jide Oluwajuyiytan, were named (five in all) and two consultants Dr. Adidi Uyo and Professor Adigun Agbaje were also named.

The result made interesting reading and we believe that a similar result would have been obtained in Ghana if we Ghanaians were polled. Without asking most Ghanaians, we have a very good impression of YarAdua, don't we?

He scored 79% favourably across six geo-political zones, with 69 percent in the Federal capital, Abuja.53 percent of those who gave him pass marks said that he is a listening and responsive President, especially in the way and manner he reversed the Value Added Tax and fuel price increases in the wake of the mass protests.22 percent reasoned that his Government had displayed a level of transparency while 11 percent agreed that his respect for the rule of law so far is second to none in the history of leadership in Nigeria!

Of the 21 percent who gave him thumbs down, 58 percent said there was nothing to show for the first 100 days in terms of infrastructure, schools and hospitals. Others queried his legitimacy and nepotism in political appointments.

Lessons for Our leaders

We believe our leaders have learned some important lessons from Nigeria with the polls from The Guardian - professionally done with verifiable data.

Unfortunately the agency which constantly, regularly regales us almost on a daily basis with 'opinion polls', Ghana Alert, fails to tell give us the statistics that the Guardian had done. We hope they will learn from The Guardian for their own credibility.

Ghana Alert gives us precious nothing about who is funding their polls and methodologies used, and as at last week when subjected to a little scrutiny by Joy FM, still failed to educate us on the sources of funding.

Everybody can take a guess as to who the front runners are and those who are bottom of the heap.

A little show of scholarship is all we demand of GhanaAlert because polling is serious business and we have come some way towards media development in Ghana, not to be subjected to the flippancy and entertainment of yore.

allAfrica.com: Ghana: Polling - The Politics of Hype (Page 1 of 2)